the punters lab
|Press synthesis for selected UK races (today's races here)||
How does it work ?
We use our software tool tipstersynthesis 2.1 (see here) to work out full cards of important meetings (usually flat).
This software creates a press synthesis (the tips from all over the free sites) and works out averages.
We give win probabilities for all the runners of the race.
See an example here.
We work with the saddle numbers rather than the horse names and for every race the computer program also reports a difficulty index.
The bigger the value of the index, the more difficult the race.
|Soccer tips of the day|
|Premier League 30-11-2020
Leicester - Fulham home win hcp -1
West Ham - Aston Villa home win
UEFA Champions League 01-12-2020
Marseille - Olympiakos Piraeus home win
Borussia M'gladbach - Inter Milan home win
How does it work ?We use the in-house software "the CosmiC Football Tool" (see here) to work out some important matches and we make a selection from those as our advice of the day.
We give you the probabilities for the possible outcomes (home-draw-away). We don't say "this will happen" as this statement has no real meaning in football.
We also give the corresponding "fair prices", the hypothe- tical prices with zero percent profit percentage for the betting company. So if we say 40% - 40% - 20%, the fair prices are 2.50 - 2.50 - 5.00.
This software, which is in use for many years, shows success rate, or predictivity, higher than the tools used by bookies to set their prices.
It does n't mean we win every time or that the bigger percentage wins.
What it means is if a value bet is spotted then it is a true value bet in the statistical sense. If the probability is 40% (so fair price is 2.50) and your operator pays 3.00 then it is a value bet.
Naturally you are likely to find more opportunities with bookmakers who operate with low profit percentages.
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